How it works

Here’s a transparent look at how our snow day predictor turns a forecast into a single probability.

Inputs

• Snow accumulation: We sum the next 24 hours of snowfall and scale it so that heavier snow contributes more.
• Wind gusts: The highest expected gust suggests blowing/drifting potential.
• Minimum temperature: Colder temps increase icing and slow road treatment.
• Ice risk near freezing: If temps are 28–33°F with higher precip probability, we flag potential ice.
• Timing: Overnight storms that hit the morning commute weigh more heavily.
• Area type: Rural routes are longer and harder to clear, nudging risk upward.

Computation

Each input is normalized to a 0–100 scale and combined with weights emphasizing snow and timing. The output is a snow day probability. It is not a guarantee.

Limitations

• Microclimates and elevation can vary significantly even within a ZIP code.
• District policies and plow resources differ—two nearby towns may make different calls.
• Forecasts are uncertain 48+ hours out; refresh closer to the storm.

Best practices

• Check again the evening before a potential event.
• Compare our estimate with your local NWS office discussion and school messages.
• Use the past‑week panel to understand recent snowfall trends.